ERS Identified Both Lululemon’s Risks and
Opportunities Long Before Wall Street

In 2024, the average Wall Street analyst covering Lululemon was projecting a target price around $400 per share—occasionally as high as $500—based largely on extrapolations of recent growth and brand momentum. Those targets were issued when LULU’s valuation multiples were already stretched and the stock price implied near-perfect execution.

By September 12, 2025, after the inevitable disappointments and a ~60% peak-to-trough decline, LULU traded near $159. At that level, Equity Risk Sciences’ 4D™ and PRI™ stock ratings gave LULU its highest ratings in its history—not because we “liked the story,” but because the numbers showed unusually favorable downside protection and upside skew relative to thousands of historical peer cases.

This report is available free of charge to lawyers.

Fast-forward to December 2025. Elliott Investment Management, founded in 1977 and widely recognized as one of the world’s most sophisticated activist investors, disclosed an investment of over $1 billion in LULU—at depressed prices and at a moment of leadership transition, not at the euphoric highs. Elliott did not publish a glossy ‘$400 price target.’ Instead, it quietly accumulated a large position, then began pressing for concrete, testable changes: a new CEO candidate with a serious operational track record, tighter execution, and better capital allocation.

In other words:

  • Wall Street analysts tried to predict a glamorous future price with almost no statistical grounding.
  • Elliott, like ERS, acted only when the price had already collapsed to a level that created an attractive risk/reward profile.

We do not know precisely what price Elliott paid for each share of LULU. We do know that:

  1. Their $1 billion stake was built only after the stock had fallen dramatically and
  2. ERS’s models had already identified that same period as the best combination of low risk and high potential reward in LULU’s public history.

Call or email us to request a copy of the full report:
(203) 254-0000  |  (401) 450-4040  |  (617) 684-3900
Ray@ERS.ai